Oraclum Intelligence Systems Ltd (henceforth Oraclum) is a non-partisan data science company based in the UK, interested in building forecasting models on real-life electoral data. We aim to use the Bayesian Adjusted Social Network (BASON) Survey of US voters to try and pick out the most precise prediction method in light of the upcoming US Presidential elections, using the power of social networks. For more details regarding the logic behind our method please see here
The survey will run up until Election Day (November 3rd) when we will provide our final forecast. Our forecasts will show the electoral votes, the total predicted percentages, and the probability distributions for two main candidates, all presented on the map of US states. They will also show the distribution of preferences for the friends of each user (so that the user could see how his or her social network is behaving and who they, as a group, are voting for), and the aggregate predictions the survey respondents will be giving.